Leading Indicators That Predict Healthy Church Growth

Aug 5, 2026

What if you could see church growth coming before it actually arrives? In this episode of the Church Revitalization Podcast, Scott Ball and A.J. Mathieu walk through three leading indicators that can predict future church health and growth, rather than simply reviewing what has already happened. They explain the difference between lag measures (like attendance) and lead measures, and show how tracking the right numbers gives church leaders real leverage to make smarter decisions.

Scott Ball and A.J. Mathieu are the co-hosts of the Church Revitalization Podcast, produced by the Malphurs Group, a church consulting and coaching organization. Scott serves as a Vice President at the Malphurs Group and works closely with churches navigating revitalization, while A.J. brings a background in church health strategy and practical leadership coaching. Together they make complex ministry concepts accessible and actionable for pastors and church leaders at every stage.

• [5:11] Lead vs. Lag Measures: The Odometer vs. Speedometer Analogy
• [7:55] Introduction to the Three Leading Indicators
• [9:08] Indicator 1: Connection Cards and First-Time Guest Engagement
• [15:16] Indicator 2: Moving People from Large Gatherings to Small Groups
• [17:46] Indicator 3: Volunteer Engagement as a Predictor of Church Health

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