407: Housing Crash Predictions with Eric Bassmijian Part 2

Housing volume cycle vs. price cycle. For a housing downturn to occur, you have to have low inventory and stressed sellers. But with inventory and mortgage rates so low, Jason asks "Where is the distressed homeowner?" "Where is this so called 'crash?'"

Join Jason and Eric Basmajian of EPBMacroResearch.com for the second part of their conversation as they look at the nuances of the "housing market," discussing why he believes a housing crash is not on the horizon-yet, the market cycles happening in the cyclical markets like San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Chicago etc. its challenges and where it might be headed.

Key Takeaway:

0:47 Who’s driving the NAHB/Wells Fargo US Market Housing Index?

1:37 Residential Building Employees

2:31 Housing construction woes

4:37 Supply of US single-family homes

7:07 The Fed’s poison pill

8:53 Protecting the asset

9:32 Housing is the business cycle by Edward E. Leamer: Volume vs Price Cycle

11:02 Financial debt + household debt to GDP

12:07 The current volume cycle: less inventory

13:35 Price cycle is more vulnerable in the new construction market

14:55 Volume cycle in the large institutional home buyers

16:49 The monetary and fiscal policy response

18:15 Sell to get the rate of inflation down

18:51 Exploiting the last cheap labor market: Africa

 

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